HurLoss Hurricane Catastrophe Model

Use of hurricane pressure field as primary model input eliminates high bias found in models fit to HURDAT2 wind speeds
Derives wind speeds and directions by numerically solving the differential equations of a translating storm instead of using approximate parametric models
Includes a modern hurricane boundary layer model based on peer-reviewed, published fits to dropsonde data
Surface friction modeling approach produces the most accurate transition of winds from sea-to-land found in any commercially available model

Allows validation of both physical damage and economic loss
Accurately predicts building response at hazard intensity levels where claims data are sparse or non-existent
Uses paid claims data for validating and refining a complete 3-D engineering model instead of fitting a purely statistical model
Provides an explicit framework for proper propagation of uncertainties
Reduces need for engineering judgment and provides explicit mechanisms for reducing uncertainties
Accurately models interactions between key building characteristics without the need for extreme simplifying assumptions
Explains why and how losses in high-value homes are correlated with square footage

Basis for structural design in hurricane-prone states since 1998 (ASCE 7)
Accepted for use in Florida since 2000 (FCHLPM, FLOIR, FLDCA)
Used for emergency management and mitigation planning nationwide since 2003 (FEMA)
Selected by Lloyd’s of London for the Oasis Solutions Project in 2015

Regions
- Mainland United States:
  - TX, LA, MS, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, WV, MD, DC, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME
Full North Atlantic basin model coming soon
- Caribbean
- Canada
- Mexico
- Central America
Event Sets
- 46,000 stochastic catalog with standard long-term climatological rates or warm sea surface temperature conditioned rates
- Historical event set consisting of nearly 200 events from 1900 onward
- Cat response event footprints available within 24-36 hours of landfall
Storm Surge
- NOAA SLOSH model with ARA event set and wind field
- Allows for “leakage” of storm surge losses into wind-only policies
Demand Surge
- Function of event intensity and size

For questions about HurLoss, contact Frank Lavelle at flavelle@ara.com.

HurLoss™ is ARA’s state-of-the-art hurricane catastrophe model for property insurers, reinsurers and brokers. Insurers rely on HurLoss for superior underwriting and portfolio management decisions.