HurLoss Hurricane Catastrophe Model
HurLoss™ is ARA’s state-of-the-art hurricane catastrophe model for property insurers, reinsurers and brokers. Insurers rely on HurLoss for superior underwriting and portfolio management decisions.
Video overview of upcoming release (4 minutes)
Physics-based hurricane hazard modeling
- Use of hurricane pressure field as primary model input eliminates high bias found in models fit to HURDAT2 wind speeds
- Derives wind speeds and directions by numerically solving the differential equations of a translating storm instead of using approximate parametric models
- Includes a modern hurricane boundary layer model based on peer-reviewed, published fits to dropsonde data
- Surface friction modeling approach produces the most accurate transition of winds from sea-to-land found in any commercially available model
Engineering load and resistance modeling
- Allows validation of both physical damage and economic loss
- Accurately predicts building response at hazard intensity levels where claims data are sparse or non-existent
- Uses paid claims data for validating and refining a complete 3-D engineering model instead of fitting a purely statistical model
- Provides an explicit framework for proper propagation of uncertainties
- Reduces need for engineering judgment and provides explicit mechanisms for reducing uncertainties
- Accurately models interactions between key building characteristics without the need for extreme simplifying assumptions
- Explains why and how losses in high-value homes are correlated with square footage
ARA’s hurricane model is the most widely published and peer reviewed model available to the insurance industry for catastrophe modeling:
- Basis for structural design in hurricane-prone states since 1998 (ASCE 7)
- Accepted for use in Florida since 2000 (FCHLPM, FLOIR, FLDCA)
- Used for emergency management and mitigation planning nationwide since 2003 (FEMA)
- Selected by Lloyd’s of London for the Oasis Solutions Project in 2015
HurLoss is available on multiple platforms:
- Oasis Loss Modelling Framework
- Nasdaq ModEx platform
- Xceedance On-Demand Catastrophe Modelling Service
HurLoss includes the following analysis options:
- Regions
- Mainland United States:
- TX, LA, MS, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, WV, MD, DC, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME
- Mainland United States:
- Full North Atlantic basin model coming soon
- Caribbean
- Canada
- Mexico
- Central America
- Event Sets
- 46,000 stochastic catalog with standard long-term climatological rates or warm sea surface temperature conditioned rates
- Historical event set consisting of nearly 200 events from 1900 onward
- Cat response event footprints available within 24-36 hours of landfall
- Storm Surge
- NOAA SLOSH model with ARA event set and wind field
- Allows for “leakage” of storm surge losses into wind-only policies
- Demand Surge
- Function of event intensity and size
For questions about HurLoss, contact Frank Lavelle at flavelle@ara.com.