HurLoss

View of a hurricane from space as it approaches Florida

Overview

HurLoss™ is ARA’s state-of-the-art hurricane catastrophe model for property insurers, reinsurers and brokers. Insurers rely on HurLoss for superior underwriting and portfolio management decisions. 

Features

Hurricane Michael Wind FieldPhysics-based hurricane hazard modeling

  • Use of hurricane pressure field as primary model input eliminates high bias found in models fit to HURDAT2 wind speeds
  • Derives wind speeds and directions by numerically solving the differential equations of a translating storm instead of using approximate parametric models
  • Includes a modern hurricane boundary layer model based on peer-reviewed, published fits to dropsonde data
  • Surface friction modeling approach produces the most accurate transition of winds from sea-to-land found in any commercially available model

HurLoss 3D building models are subjected to hurricane winds to develop physical damage estimates

Engineering load and resistance modeling

  • Allows validation of both physical damage and economic loss
  • Accurately predicts building response at hazard intensity levels where claims data are sparse or non-existent
  • Uses paid claims data for validating and refining a complete 3-D engineering model instead of fitting a purely statistical model
  • Provides an explicit framework for proper propagation of uncertainties
  • Reduces need for engineering judgment and provides explicit mechanisms for reducing uncertainties
  • Accurately models interactions between key building characteristics without the need for extreme simplifying assumptions
  • Explains why and how losses in high-value homes are correlated with square footage

Specifications

ARA’s hurricane model is the most widely published and peer reviewed model available to the insurance industry for catastrophe modeling:

  • Basis for structural design in hurricane-prone states since 1998 (ASCE 7)
  • Accepted for use in Florida since 2000 (FCHLPM, FLOIR, FLDCA)
  • Used for emergency management and mitigation planning nationwide since 2003 (FEMA)
  • Selected by Lloyd’s of London for the Oasis Solutions Project in 2015

Applications

HurLoss is available on multiple platforms, including Nasdaq ModExHurLoss is available on multiple platforms:

Options

HurLoss includes the following analysis options:

  • Regions
    • Mainland United States:
      • TX, LA, MS, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, WV, MD, DC, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME
  • Full North Atlantic basin model coming soon
    • Caribbean
    • Canada
    • Mexico
    • Central America
  • Event Sets
    • 46,000 stochastic catalog with standard long-term climatological rates or warm sea surface temperature conditioned rates
    • Historical event set consisting of nearly 200 events from 1900 onward
    • Cat response event footprints available within 24-36 hours of landfall
  • Storm Surge
    • NOAA SLOSH model with ARA event set and wind field
    • Allows for “leakage” of storm surge losses into wind-only policies
  • Demand Surge
    • Function of event intensity and size

For questions about HurLoss, contact Frank Lavelle at flavelle@ara.com.