Environmental and Ship Motion Forecasting

Environmental and Ship Motion Forecasting System Design


Sea and wind conditions have a substantial effect on sea base vessel motion, and on the decision to initiate and curtail transfers between two ships tied together “skin to skin” while underway.  When to start and stop transfers is the issue. Judgments that are too cautious and risk adverse can curtail transfers too quickly and may compromise mission accomplishment, particularly in high tempo operations. Judgments that are high risk will potentially expose personnel, equipment, commodities, and vessels to damage and loss.  The ESMF Cognitive Aid Investigation supports development of a computer-based decision aid for use by decision-makers related to transfers.


ARA developed information and decision requirements and diagrammatic representations based on observation and extensive cognitive task analysis interviews with Navy officers and crew. The ARA team identified information needs and decision requirements needed by Command and the Cargo Transfer teams during "Approach and Transfer" phases of operations, modeled concept of operations and operator information displaysto make critical decisions, and evaluated the solution with highly experienced Masters.


ARA successfully demonstrated the value of Cognitive Systems Engineering methods to identify network of operators, phases of operation, information needs, timing of information, operational utility, and information and decision requirements.  Should the sea base approach continue, the likelihood of operator acceptance of the ESMF system will increase as the operational community recognizes the final interface displays as having the requirements and data elements that they have identified in our early on research.  More importantly, the displays will provide the information operators need, in the form they need, to make critical decisions in high hazard operations.

Applied Cognition

Cognitive Solutions

Our cognitive capabilities combined with our expertise in the physical sciences allow us to develop solutions that enhance the performance of... more