Computerized Event Simulation Modeling for Egress/Ingress using E-Sim
Determining optimal standard order of procedures (SOPs) for various egress/ingress situations is often challenging. Educated guesses and evacuation drills are limited in their ability to form the best egress/ingress procedures. There is a need for software to handle multiple event scenarios, with tens of thousands of people evacuating simultaneously. A detailed three-dimensional (3D) model to accurately represent evacuation is essential. The simulation should be able to handle large‑scale events with numerous agent based variables (speed, size, reaction times, etc.) and impaired movement for adverse events.
E-Sim serves as an assessment/diagnostic tool which is used to determine optimal egress/ingress solutions for facilities, examine where bottlenecks or problems exist, and factors cognitive processes such as uncertainty, panic and groupthink, and many other considerations into the analysis. These capabilities enable E-Sim to be used to analyze evacuation impacts from a broad range of natural (fire, facility damage) and manmade disaster scenarios (chemical, biological, explosion).
ARA uses E-Sim to model the effects from a range of adverse events for both ingress and egress situations for various facility types. For example, in a blast event that causes impassible corridors or areas of blockage, impact on egress is accounted for in E-Sim. Progression of first responders throughout the facility is evaluated using scenario-based inputs and limitations imposed by post-event conditions onsite.
ARA uses the E-Sim Software to determine the time-dependent level of exposure to people from chemical or biological events based on location within the facility, as well as contaminant transport throughout the facility. E-SIM models the movement of people during an evacuation while calculating the total dosage each person is receiving based on their initial location and subsequent movement through the facility. As each person's dosage level increases, their ability to function decreases appropriately based on Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) published by the Environmental Protection Agency. When the dosage reaches a given level, the person may become incapacitated (i.e., cease to move) and may subsequently not survive.
Evacuation Simulation (Esim):
- Handles multiple event scenarios, with tens of thousands of people evacuating simultaneously
- Constructs detailed three-dimensional (3D) models of facilities
- Simulates large‑scale agent (people) egress/ingress events with numerous variables (speed, size, reaction times)
- Enables determination of the best routes, foreseeing potential obstructions, addressing the chaos/panic factor, and orchestrating the evacuation
ARA uses this tool and the applicable output to provide insight into a broad array of situations to aid in decision making and planning for a wide variety of events. Using multiple simulations and adjusting inputs enables ARA to provide SOPs for evacuation plans for various scenarios. For scenarios such as chemical or biological events, E-Sim keeps track of their total dosage level and will indicate whether they will require medical treatment over the next few hours or days. This allows the E-Sim user to determine medical response requirements.
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