2012 ARA July Bermuda Seminar

2012 Applied Research Associates (ARA) July Bermuda Seminar

July 17th, 2012: 9am – 11.30am
Fairmont Hamilton Princess
Hamilton, Bermuda

Assessing Storm Surge Risk and Hurricane Frequency Modeling

We are pleased to offer a complementary seminar on July 17th, 2012 at the Fairmont Hamilton Princess in Hamilton, Bermuda. ARA's renowned scientists, engineers and business leaders will offer timely discussions to improve your ability to assess hurricane risk to insurance portfolios. During this session we will introduce ARA's storm surge model for U.S. hurricane. The addition of storm surge expands the range of explicitly modeled perils in ARA's HurLoss hurricane model to wind pressure, wind-borne debris, rainfall-induced damage and storm surge; offering the most detailed view of hurricane risk available in the market. We will also address important considerations when modeling hurricane frequency under long-term and WSST climate conditions.






Welcome and opening remarks Will Skinner, Director Catastrophe Modeling Solutions


Introduction to ARA's storm surge model for U.S. hurricane, Dr. Frank Lavelle, PhD, P.E., Vice President

Storm surge modeling has been a topic of considerable focus in recent times. In this session Dr. Lavelle will introduce ARA's storm surge model for United States hurricane risk. This fully probabilistic model leverages ARA's industry standard hurricane hazard model to produce realistic surge footprints and leverages the newly available research on surge damage caused by Hurricane Ike.


Demystifying hurricane frequency modeling, Dr. Peter Vickery, PhD, P.E.

Modeling the frequency of hurricane events is a key step in producing robust loss estimates and reliable probabilistic event catalogs. Various approaches can be taken with respect to interpreting observational data sets, selecting frequency distributions and accounting for the impact of climate conditions. In this session ARA's Dr. Peter Vickery will discuss important issues that impact hurricane frequency modeling and review ARA's approach to modeling heightened event frequencies associated with warm sea-surface temperature conditions.


Questions and closing remarks

 Will Skinner

Will Skinner, Director of Catastrophe Modeling Solutions, ARA IntraRisk Division

Will Skinner leads marketing and sales activities for ARA's catastrophe modeling solutions. He works with major insurance companies, reinsurance brokers and reinsurers, advocating best practice in catastrophe risk management and providing support and services to assist them in their effective use of ARA catastrophe models. Previously, Mr. Skinner was a Senior Manager of Client Services at AIR Worldwide. He also has experience in finance and education services. Mr. Skinner graduated from the University of Sydney (Australia) and received an M.S. in Information Systems and an M.B.A from Boston University.

Dr. Frank Lavelle Dr. Frank Lavelle PhD, Vice President, ARA IntraRisk Division

Frank Lavelle is a Vice President and Principal Engineer with 21 years of research, development, and project management experience in the areas of extreme loading effects, probabilistic risk assessment, and decision support software. He joined Applied Research Associates, Inc. in 1990 after completing his Ph.D. in structural engineering at Rice University. Frank manages the software development and technical support of ARA's HurLoss U. S. hurricane catastrophe loss model and the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Hazus-MH hurricane damage and loss model.

Dr. Peter VickeryDr. Peter Vickery PhD

Dr. Peter Vickery joined Applied Research Associates in 1988. Prior to joining ARA, Dr. Vickery completed both his Masters and Doctoral studies at the University of Western Ontario, working with Dr. Alan Davenport, an internationally recognized expert and leader of modern wind engineering technology. Dr. Vickery has over 19 years of experience in wind engineering. He has 12 years experience in the application of hurricane modeling relevant to insurance loss analysis/rate making. Dr. Vickery has published six peer reviewed journal papers related to hurricane risk and additional papers related to wind loads on buildings and other structures.