Capabilities | Risk and Loss Analysis

Damage and Loss Modeling
ARA validates damage and loss models based on data from detailed storm surveys derived from structures such as this reinforced concrete condominium building.
Credible evaluations of individual buildings for failures produced by severe wind storms require the collection and analysis of site and building-specific information. ARA has developed a methodology to perform wind storm risk and loss analyses on individual structures and terms this methodology BELLE®, for Building Evaluation and Loss Estimation. A BELLE study is carried out with inputs derived from on-site data collection and building walkdown. BELLE produces site-specific winds by simulating approximately 10,000 years of occurrence. Our methodology then modifies these winds to account for the effects of site-specific terrain and determines the building from the resulting peak gust winds and the aerodynamic model of the building envelope.
BELLE
ARA developed the BELLE® methodology for individual building risk and loss evaluations of commercial or residential structures.

As each simulated storm propagates along its track, BELLE progressively models the loads for the building and aggregates the resultant failures. BELLE also treats both direct wind failures and wind-borne missile failures to the building envelope. If the building envelope is breached by one or more missiles or from a pressure failure, then BELLE treats the building as pressurized internally and computes the loads accordingly, taking into account wind direction as the storm progresses.

ARA produces dollar loss estimates using building-specific repair/rebuild cost-estimation models and insurance company claims statistics.

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